Manitoba is heading into the spring runoff period with a generally low to moderate risk of flooding, according to an outlook released last week by Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre.
While conditions are relatively favourable across much of the province, officials stress that the ultimate flood risk will depend heavily on weather patterns over the coming weeks.
At present, a moderate flood risk is forecast for several key waterways, including the Red, Pembina, Assiniboine, Souris and Qu’Appelle rivers, as well as the Interlake region — covering the Icelandic and Fisher rivers — and parts of the Saskatchewan River in northern Manitoba. A low risk applies to many Red and Assiniboine River tributaries, such as the Rat and Roseau rivers, along with eastern Manitoba’s Winnipeg River basin, the Whiteshell lakes area and most provincial lakes.
Overall basin conditions point to low to moderate spring runoff potential. Soil moisture levels at freeze-up were near normal to below normal across most regions, winter precipitation has also trended near or below seasonal averages, and frost depths are generally shallower than normal. These factors should allow for greater infiltration of meltwater, reducing runoff volumes, the outlook said.
Snow accumulations are mostly within normal ranges, although parts of southern Manitoba continue to report below-average snowpack.
Lake levels across Manitoba remain within operating ranges, with Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba sitting well below normal for this time of year. Inflows into major lakes are expected to remain below seasonal norms, reflecting generally drier conditions across contributing watersheds.
Flood-control infrastructure is not expected to see routine operation under normal weather conditions.
Ice conditions remain a key variable. Ice-cutting and breaking are underway on the Red River, with other ice-jam-prone rivers also being closely monitored. Provincial emergency officials continue to coordinate preparedness efforts with municipalities, First Nations and emergency partners.
An updated spring flood outlook is expected in late March, as weather conditions during the melt period become clearer.
